Meeting the 1.5°C warming goal

 

International

 

Under the Paris climate agreement, nations set a goal of limiting warming to 3.6°F, or 2 °C, increase in global average temperatures, with ambitions of a stricter limit of 2.7°F, or 1.5°C of warming. The UN asked the IPCC to figure out what it would take to hit the 1.5°C target, and what’s in store for the world if we did pull it off.

 

Staying at or below 1.5°C requires slashing global greenhouse gas emissions 45 percent below 2010 levels by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050. Current level is 37 billion tons of CO2 each year.

 

We have just 7 years to make massive and unprecedented changes to global energy infrastructure to limit global warming to moderate levels, the United Nation’s climate science body said in a monumental new 2018 report released Sunday.

 

By 2030 the world must triple emission reductions to reach 2 degrees centigrade and reduce 5 times to reach 1.5 degrees centigrade.  

 

United States

 

In 2015 Obama said the United States would cut its emissions by 26 to 28 percent by 2025. Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Accord. Under President Biden's day one executive order, the United States officially rejoined the landmark Paris Agreement on February 19, 2021, positioning the country to once again be part of the global climate solution.

 

California

 

In 2018 California passed SB100 which is to achieve a 50% renewable resources target by December 31, 2026, and to achieve a 60% target by December 31, 2030. This bill states that it is the policy of the state that eligible renewable energy resources and zero-carbon resources supply 100% of retail sales of electricity to California end-use customers and 100% of electricity procured to serve all state agencies by December 31, 2045. Governor Brown also announced an executive order directing California to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045 and to be net greenhouse gas negative thereafter. The order will require California to undertake additional decarbonization efforts, such as capturing and sequestering carbon in soil and building materials.

 

In selecting a GHG reduction goal for 2030, the Energy Commission staff is recommending a stay-the-course, 46 million metric ton (MMT) target, the same target the Commission used before the passage of SB 100. That target and the accompanying Reference System Portfolio will put California far behind the curve in 2030 when electricity demand is expected to accelerate due to growth of electric vehicles and electrification of other sectors of the economy. The Reference System Portfolio is also seriously flawed because it fails to consider or model low cost hybrid resources, like solar paired with battery storage, as new candidate resources that should be procured. With the risk of catastrophic wildfires and other climate disasters increasing, California cannot afford delays in implementing SB 100. Vote Solar and many other parties to the Commission’s Integrated Resource Planning proceeding have called on the Commission to adopt a significantly lower 2030 target of 30 MMT, which was previously modeled by the Commission staff and, if adopted, will provide much more confidence that California can get to the zero carbon emissions goal by 2045.T

The California State Legislature raised the bar again in 2022, setting interim goals of 90% zero-carbon electricity sales by 2035 and 95% by 2040.

 

California 2017 GHG emissions by sector:

• Transportation 41%

• Industrial 24%

• Electricity in state 9%

• Electricity imported 6%

• Residential 7%

• Commercial 5%

 

Building Energy Efficiency Standards goals

 

Residential

2013 ~ 30% more efficient than 2006 code

2016 ~ 28% more efficient than 2013 code

2019 ~   7% more efficient than 2016 code

              7% without PVs and 53% of entire house with PVs

Non-residential

2016 ~   5% more efficient than 2013 code

2019 ~   30% more efficient than 2016

 

Nevada County Energy Action Plans

 

1. Nevada City Energy Action Plan goal of 28% electricity reduction by 2020 and natural gas use by 10%. Ensure the transition to 100% renewable energy for its community electricity supply from PG&E and independent providers by 2030 and 100% Renewable Energy by 2050.

2. Grass Valley Energy Action Plan goal of 36% electricity reduction by 2035 and natural gas use by 29%.

3. Nevada County Energy Action Plan goal of 51% electricity reduction by 2035 and natural gas use by 30%.

 

The California Climate Center Goals for California

 

Climate-safe California Rapid Decarbonization Campaign.

 

• California measured emissions in 1990 were 431 million metric tons (MMT)

• California actual measured emissions in 2017 were 424 MMT

• California goal is 40% below 1990 by 2030 (259 MMT)

• The Campaign goal is 80% below 1990 by 2030 (86 MMT)

• This also includes sequestration of 100 million metric tons per year though healthy soils and habitat restoration for a net of minus 14 metric tons per year.

 

Earth Day 2030: California Celebrates Reaching Net-Negative Emissions Nation & World Collaborating for Speed & Scale Climate Action

 

Today, Earth Day 2030, we celebrate the deep systemic changes we have collectively made for a healthy, equitable, and climate-safe future. We reflect back on an exceptional ten years of climate action. The decade began with a nightmare, COVID-19, which woke us up to the deadly consequences of ignoring science. We quickly realized that we must heed the warning of climate experts and take immediate, bold action to avert climate catastrophe. It took an exponentially growing body of diverse advocates putting pressure on policymakers to create bold change in line with the science. COVID-19 showed us how quickly and dramatically we could change government policies, unleash market forces, and create opportunities for everyone to participate in a climate-safe economy.

 

Today we look back on our many achievements, including:

• California accelerated the phase-out of fossil fuel development, production, and use. Legislation enacted in the early 2020s is showing enormous benefits for health, the environment and the economy as the state halted all new investments in fossil fuel infrastructure and began rapidly phasing-out fossil fuel-powered cars, trucks, buses, trains, and equipment. We dramatically increased investments in public transportation, housing near jobs, and innovative programs that reduced toxic air pollution, especially for frontline communities. The state also enacted zero-emissions building codes and began phasing out methane gas. We are grateful to the workers whose livelihoods were dependent on fossil fuel industries for making this rapid transition to a 100% GHG-free, clean energy economy possible.

• We are rapidly drawing down carbon from the atmosphere through sequestration on natural and working lands for net-negative emissions, making sequestration greater than emissions. Ranchers, farmers, and public resource managers were incentivized to implement climate-friendly habitat and soil protection and restoration programs on millions of acres from the Sierras to the sea. Farmers led the way in reducing emissions while supporting food and water security with climate-friendly, regenerative production.

• Unavoidable damage from extreme climate events meant that California became heavily invested in community resilience and protecting the most vulnerable, lower-income communities. Legislation enacted in the early 2020s funded and supported California's counties and cities to develop and implement clean, local, decentralized, resilient energy and storage, building independent capacity to address climate and other emergencies. Major new state programs funded and supported local climate emergency response and preparedness measures, including early warning systems, resilience centers, and public education programs that are now benefitting all Californians.

• California created new financing mechanisms, from frequent flyer fees and carbon taxes to private sector investments that generated the billions of dollars needed annually for speed and scale climate solutions.

 

Millions of people took action to bring about the changes in policy that accelerated our transition. On this Earth Day 2030, we commit to continuing our efforts to secure a healthy, vibrant, and equitable future for all.